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These changes are amplified under the higher scenario (RCP8.5) and also for 2090 as compared to 2050.Īir quality is important for human health, vegetation, and crops as well as aesthetic considerations (such as visibility) that affect appreciation of the natural beauty of national parks and other outdoor spaces. Ozone concentration is projected to decrease slightly in the Pacific Northwest, across the southernmost United States, and across the state of Maine, with the most pronounced decrease (2 parts per billion) projected for South Texas and South Florida. Changes are most pronounced in the Northern Great Plains and the Midwest and also along the Great Lakes coastline, where concentrations could rise by 4 to 5 parts per billion. Under the lower scenario for 2050, ozone concentration is projected to rise across much of the Nation, including the Southwest, Northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The bottom two maps display projected changes for the year 2090 under the lower and higher scenarios.
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The top two maps display projected changes in average daily summertime ozone concentration levels (in parts per billion) for the year 2050 under a lower scenario (RCP4.5) and a higher scenario (RCP8.5). Specifically, mitigating GHG emissions can lower emissions of particulate matter (PM), ozone and PM precursors, and other hazardous pollutants, reducing the risks to human health from air pollution.įour maps of the contiguous United States are shown. In addition to reducing future warming, reductions in GHG emissions often result in co-benefits (other positive effects, such as improved air quality) and possibly some negative effects (disbenefits) ( Ch.
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The energy sector, which includes energy production, conversion, and use, accounts for 84% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States as well as 80% of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and 96% of sulfur dioxide, the major precursor of sulfate aerosol. Longer fire seasons and increases in the number of large fires would impair both human health and visibility.Ĭlimate change, specifically rising temperatures and increased carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations, can influence plant-based allergens, hay fever, and asthma in three ways: by increasing the duration of the pollen season, by increasing the amount of pollen produced by plants, and by altering the degree of allergic reactions to the pollen. Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory disease, resulting in adverse impacts to human health. The magnitude of the climate penalty over the United States could be reduced by mitigating climate change.Ĭlimatic changes, including warmer springs, longer summer dry seasons, and drier soils and vegetation, have already lengthened the wildfire season and increased the frequency of large wildfires. Climate change has already had an influence on ozone concentrations over the United States, offsetting some of the expected ozone benefit from reduced precursor emissions. The climate penalty results from changes in local weather conditions, including temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, as well as changes in ozone precursor emissions that are influenced by meteorology. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions of ozone precursor emissions, there is high confidence that climate change will increase ozone levels over most of the United States, particularly over already polluted areas, thereby worsening the detrimental health and environmental effects due to ozone.